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Source: Daniel Kuester, 785-532-6341, dkuester@k-state.edu
Pronouncer: Kuester is KEYS-ter
News release prepared by: Kristin Hodges, 785-532-2535, media@k-state.edu
Thursday, Aug. 12, 2010
BETTORS HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO PROFIT WHEN COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS IN HUMID 1xbet online sports betting PLAY IN DRY AREAS, K-STATE STUDY REVEALS
MANHATTAN -- When placing a spread bet on college football, a bettor's success might have as much to do with geography as with luck.
When a Kansas State University economist combined his enthusiasm for college football with his expertise in arid land studies, he and a colleague found that bettors have a good chance of making money by placing a spread bet on an arid-region team when it hosts a humid-region team.
K-State's Daniel Kuester is an assistant professor and the Roger Trenary Chair in Economics at K-State. He's also a college football enthusiast and the executive director of the Association of Arid Lands Studies.
This triangle of interests led to the spread betting 1xbet online sports betting research published in the November 2009 issue of the Journal of Economics and Finance. His co-author is Shane Sanders, an assistant professor of economics at Nicholls State University who received his doctorate in economics from K-State.
Their study shows that a considerable spread betting bias occurs when NCAA Division I-A college football teams from humid regions travel to arid regions. This discovery opens up a significant opportunity for profit in the spread-betting 1xbet online sports betting .
"As economists we expect markets to be efficient," Kuester said. "I find any 1xbet online sports betting that behaves differently than we expect fascinating. I certainly didn't expect there to be an arbitrage opportunity that was statistically significant when studying this data."
In spread-betting markets, wagers are made based on whether a favored team will win by a certain margin, which is the point spread. An efficient 1xbet online sports betting will feature a final pre-game spread that constitutes the median expected game outcome, where the spread is met by the favored team half of the time.
Using data from the Phil Steele's College Football Preview Magazine -- which uses betting lines in Las Vegas for information -- Kuester and Sanders studied the spread betting 1xbet online sports betting of 4,345 games during the seven seasons of NCAA Division I-A football from 2000 to 2006.
The researchers were trying to determine if the 1xbet online sports betting is efficient -- that the 1xbet online sports betting prices fully reflect all known information. In an efficient 1xbet online sports betting , there should be no advantage because there should be no additional information not already available to everyone else in the 1xbet online sports betting .
Because college football is a physically strenuous outdoor sport in which teams often play in regions they're not acclimated to, the researchers wanted to know whether bettors understand the effects of regional climate on athletes.If these effects aren't understood in the 1xbet online sports betting , betting markets for interregional games will likely be less efficient than betting markets for intraregional games.
The researchers compared betting markets for interregional games where teams in arid 1xbet online sports betting traveled to play teams in humid 1xbet online sports betting as well as games where humid-region teams traveled to play teams in arid 1xbet online sports betting . They also studied markets for intraregional games.Humid or semi-humid 1xbet online sports betting were defined as those receiving an average annual rainfall of more than 32 inches, and all other 1xbet online sports betting were classified as arid or semiarid.
Their findings showed that for most of the games played, the spreads were met by the favored team half the time, demonstrating an efficient 1xbet online sports betting .
However, the exception exists for games where teams from humid 1xbet online sports betting traveled to arid 1xbet online sports betting . The data showed that teams in arid 1xbet online sports betting won against the spread in 56 percent of games when they hosted a team from a humid region during the seven-season sample. Therefore, spread betting markets don't efficiently account for difficulties faced by humid-region teams when traveling to and competing in arid 1xbet online sports betting .
That means there is a statistically significant profit opportunity for those placing a spread bet on an arid-region team when it hosts a humid-region team.
Because Kuester and Sanders' results did not show inefficiency in the 1xbet online sports betting for the rest of the games, the researchers said such factors as home field advantage and travel are controlled. They said previous research shows it is rare to find strong form 1xbet online sports betting inefficiency when controlling for a single variable, which makes the effect of climate aridity upon the college football spread betting 1xbet online sports betting dramatic.
"Tests of the efficient 1xbet online sports betting hypothesis get at some very fundamental questions in economics, such as whether 1xbet online sports betting actors behave rationally and to what degree markets generate well-being for society," Sanders said.
Sanders said inefficient markets are one way of explaining how 1xbet online sports betting bubbles might form. That is when there is a trade in products with inflated values, such as those throughout history like the housing 1xbet online sports betting and numerous stock 1xbet online sports betting bubbles.