Department of Economics

Dr. Steven Cassou | Working papers 1xbet best casino website

Asymmetric effects of expectation shocks when monetary 1xbet best casino website regimes shift: Evidence

Abstract: Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Livingston Survey data, this paper empirically investigates the effects of expectation shocks on macroeconomic activities when monetary 1xbet best casino website shifts between 1xbet best casino website regimes. Two 1xbet best casino website switching structures, including an opportunistic monetary 1xbet best casino website structure and a structure contingent on the unemployment rate, are investigated. Identifying an expectation shock by using the timing of information in the survey forecasts and the actual data releases, we show that the effects of expectation shocks on current and future macroeconomic activities are stronger in a hawkish monetary 1xbet best casino website regime than in a dovish monetary 1xbet best casino website regime. Our findings do not support the view of some central bank critics who argued that keeping monetary 1xbet best casino website too easy for too long is responsible for fueling the booms. Instead, we find that a positive (negative) expectation about the future results in an anticipatory tightening (easing) of monetary 1xbet best casino website .

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